Prompt 2025 – Asking the big questions about Washington and beyond.
By Megan McArdle
(Chiqui Esteban/The Washington Post; iStock)
Like many of our readers, I’m sure, I’ve been stocking up on various items that are made in China before the price rises. That seems to me a good metaphor for the odd period we’re in:
We know what’s coming, but it hasn’t arrived yet. President Donald Trump is preparing us for what it might look like, though, recently warning that “maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls.”
Is this what the post-“Liberation Day” economy will look like come the holidays? And how will Americans react to empty shelves or price hikes for goods they expect to be cheap and plentiful? I spoke with my colleagues Philip Bump and Jim Geraghty about the politics of shortages. 💬 💬 💬
Megan McArdle: In a recent piece for the Dispatch, John McCormack quotes a business owner who is waiting for equipment that will cost him [more than] twice what he thought he was paying: “We’re just hoping either the ship sinks or somebody comes to their senses before it hits the dock.” So: When will the tariff ship sink? And where is the pain likely to show up first, economically or politically?
Philip Bump: The answer appears to be “imminently.” There are already reports of ports seeing far less traffic. It seems like a straightforward chain of repercussions: fewer goods and higher prices lead to more economic pain which leads to political pain — though it’s still not clear how much of the latter will be borne by the president himself.
Jim Geraghty: I can’t believe the administration is so nonchalant about the prospect of supply chain problems, at least so far. The supply chain shortage driven by the pandemic is not ancient history. I don’t think it was a decisive factor in Biden’s defeat, but I do think it added to the widespread perception among voters that the economy wasn’t doing well, despite the low unemployment rate. You would think Trump and his team would want to do everything possible to minimize empty shelves or higher prices. But apparently … nah!
Megan: In Trump’s first term, tariffs affected cars and washing machines, among other products; he doesn’t seem to have paid much of a price for that. I assume this time will be different — but how different?
Jim: Where Trump might have a bit more leeway is that people feel inflation most intensely (and quickly) in things they purchase on a regular basis — groceries and gasoline come to mind. People know, generally, what they paid for those items last week, last month, etc. Things like toys, lumber and big-ticket electronics they buy less often, and thus I think memories will be fuzzier of what things used to cost.
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