Report: Analysis of Trump’s Proposed Budget and Tax Plan: “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill” – Gemini & DrWeb

Report: Analysis of Trump’s Proposed Budget and Tax Plan: “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill”

By Gemini

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the potential impacts of President Donald Trump’s proposed budget and tax plan, often referred to as “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill.” While the original Washington Post article could not be accessed, this summary synthesizes information from various reputable sources to offer a comprehensive overview of the bill’s anticipated effects on the U.S. economy, its citizens, healthcare, and specific populations like veterans and the homeless.

1. Financial and Economic Impacts

The core of Trump’s proposed legislation lies in the permanent extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and the introduction of new, albeit temporary, tax breaks.¹ These measures are projected to significantly escalate the national debt.

• Deficit Projections:

• The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) and the Bipartisan Policy Center estimate that the bill could add approximately $3.8 trillion to the U.S. deficit over the next decade.²
• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and the Tax Foundation project a similar increase of around $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the same period. This substantial rise is primarily attributed to tax cuts that are not fully offset by proposed spending reductions.
• Federal Revenue Reduction:
• The tax provisions within the bill are anticipated to reduce federal revenues by an estimated $3.3 trillion to $4.1 trillion between 2025 and 2034.³
• Economic Growth Concerns:
• While proponents argue for economic stimulation, analyses from organizations like the Tax Foundation and Penn Wharton Budget Model suggest a potentially muted impact on long-run economic growth. Concerns include scenarios where wages and capital stock could shrink, and higher interest payments on the national debt could negatively affect American incomes.
  

2. Impact on American People

The proposed tax cuts are largely anticipated to disproportionately benefit higher-income earners, with more modest, or even negative, effects on lower and middle-income households.⁴

• Income Disparity:

• Households earning over $1 million annually could see their after-tax incomes increase by an estimated 4.3%.
• The top 0.1% of earners (those making at least $4.3 million per year) might receive an annual after-tax boost of approximately $389,000.
• Conversely, the lowest-earning 20% of Americans could experience an average after-tax income increase of only 0.6% (roughly $90 annually). Furthermore, when factoring in reductions to government benefits like Medicaid, this group could face a decrease of approximately $1,035 in 2026.
• Households in the lowest income quintile could face an average lifetime loss of $28,000 due to proposed cuts in Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
• The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) highlights that while 62% of taxpayers would avoid tax increases if the TCJA were made permanent, the overall benefit would be skewed towards the wealthy.
• Specific Tax Changes:
• The bill includes new, temporary tax breaks on tips, overtime pay, and auto loan interest.⁵
• Consumer Costs:
• Proposed tariffs could lead to higher costs for consumer goods, a burden that disproportionately affects lower-income households.⁶

3. Impact on Healthcare

Healthcare programs, particularly Medicaid, are slated for significant modifications and potential funding reductions under the proposed plan.⁷

• Medicaid Reductions and Coverage Loss:
• The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that substantial reductions in Medicaid spending could lead to at least 7.6 million people losing healthcare coverage.
• Eligibility Changes:

• New “community engagement requirements” of at least 80 hours per month (e.g., work, education, or community service) would be introduced for able-bodied adults without dependents to qualify for Medicaid, starting in 2029.⁸
• Medicaid eligibility verification would also become more frequent, moving from annual to semi-annual.
• State Burden:
• States could face increased financial responsibility for Medicaid and SNAP as federal contributions are reduced, potentially forcing them to restrict eligibility or limit covered services.⁹

4. Impact on Veterans and Homeless Populations

The plan outlines specific initiatives for veterans and the homeless, alongside broader policy changes that could have mixed effects on these vulnerable groups.

• Homeless Veterans Initiatives:
• An executive order establishes a National Center for Warrior Independence on the West Los Angeles VA Medical Campus, with the goal of housing 6,000 homeless veterans by 2028.¹⁰ This initiative proposes redirecting funds previously allocated for services to undocumented immigrants.
• Veterans’ Healthcare and Benefits Concerns:

• While the plan aims to improve Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) care options and reduce wait times, concerns have been raised by sources like ProPublica about potential staff cuts within the VA (reportedly up to 15%).¹¹ Such cuts could negatively impact the quality of veteran healthcare, including access to “life-saving cancer trials.”¹²
• Proposals under “Project 2025” suggest making it more difficult for veterans to obtain disability benefits and could potentially lead to the termination of the “Housing First” strategy for homeless veterans, which might result in increased homelessness among this population.¹³

Conclusion

“The One, Big, Beautiful Bill” represents a continuation of policy priorities emphasizing tax cuts and specific changes to social welfare programs.¹⁴ While proponents highlight aims to stimulate the economy, analyses from independent organizations raise concerns about significant increases in national debt and potentially adverse impacts on lower and middle-income Americans, as well as critical social safety nets like healthcare and veteran support systems.¹⁵

Source Links:

1. GOP bill could add trillions to the U.S. deficit, some experts say.¹⁶ Here’s what to know. (CBS News) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-tax-bill-reconcilation-deficit-moodys-debt-spending/
2. Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts (Tax Foundation) https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/
3. How much would Americans of different income save in taxes if the GOP bill is signed into law? (CBS News) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-tax-bill-one-big-beautiful-bill-impact-by-income-group/
4. Trump’s bill advances in rare weekend vote as House conservatives negotiate changes (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2025/05/19/nx-s1-5403378/trump-house-conservatives-budget-bill
5. The One, Big, Beautiful Bill Delivers on President Trump’s Priorities to Restore and Expand Trump-Era Growth and Relief for Families, Workers, and Small Businesses (Ways and Means House GOP) https://waysandmeans.house.gov/2025/05/12/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-delivers-on-president-trumps-priorities-to-restore-and-expand-trump-era-growth-and-relief-for-families-workers-and-small-businesses/
6. “Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis (Tax Foundation) https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/big-beautiful-bill-house-gop-tax-plan/
7. Trump’s ‘beautiful’ bill spans 1116 pages.¹⁷ Here’s what’s inside it (AP News) https://apnews.com/article/trump-big-beautiful-bill-medicaid-cuts-125ad670515460108ded062029abd8c8
8. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Keeps Promises to Our Veterans and Establishes New Center for Homeless Veterans (The White House) https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/05/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-keeps-promises-to-our-veterans-and-establishes-new-center-for-homeless-veterans/
9. Trump signs order to create center for homeless vets — with funds meant for housing undocumented immigrants (Yahoo News) https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-signs-order-create-center-183000539.html
10. Thousands of Homeless Veterans To Be Housed Under New Trump Plan (Newsweek) https://www.newsweek.com/homeless-veterans-housed-trump-los-angeles-2070642
11. Trump’s latest executive orders affect homeless vets, criminal prosecutions, regulatory efficiency (Yahoo News) https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-latest-executive-orders-affect-002119625.html
12. Internal VA Emails Reveal How Trump and DOGE Cuts Jeopardize Veterans’ Care (ProPublica via Truthout) https://truthout.org/articles/internal-va-emails-reveal-how-trump-and-doge-cuts-jeopardize-veterans-care/
13. Changing Affairs: VA Expects Change During Trump Administration (BHFS.com) https://www.bhfs.com/insights/alerts-articles/2025/changing-affairs-va-expects-change-during-trump-administration
14. Project 2025’s Plan To Gut Checks and Balances Harms Veterans (American Progress) https://www.americanprogress.org/article/project-2025s-plan-to-gut-checks-and-balances-harms-veterans/
15. The House Tax Plan, By the Numbers (ITEP.org) https://itep.org/house-tax-plan-trump-tax-cuts-by-the-numbers/
16. Republican Agenda’s “Triple Threat” to Low- and Moderate-Income Family Well-Being (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities) https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/republican-agendas-triple-threat-to-low-and-moderate-income-family-well-being
17. The Economic Effects of President Trump’s Tariffs (Penn Wharton Budget Model) https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/4/10/economic-effects-of-president-trumps-tariffs
18. Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ bill advances out of committee, but conservatives demand more changes (PBS NewsHour) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-advances-out-of-committee-but-conservatives-demand-more-changes

Note: This report was generated by Gemini.